Is Ethereum in the grip of a new bearish trend?
Ethereum is the most important altcoin in the world. Since its launch eight years ago, it has established itself as a hub of innovation in the cryptocurrency environment. It pioneered the ideas of decentralized finance and applications. It was the birthplace of non-fungible tokens, the concept of which was later adopted by Bitcoin as part of their development of the Ordinals. However, over the last year, the Ethereum price caved in under the pressure of the bear market. According to analysts, the slowdown was the most acute in the entire history of digital assets.
Since the beginning of 2023, investors have become convinced that things are on the mend. Prices began to climb again, leading to renewed engagement from investors willing to boost their portfolios. But things haven’t progressed as smoothly as everyone pictured in the beginning, and the setbacks led many to wonder exactly what they can expect soon.
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Although initially, most analysts were staunch in the belief that the bear market has wholly subsided and that there’s no way it could possibly return, the current outlook is somewhat different. The Ethereum price didn’t manage to gain a firm foothold and find support at the $2,000 marker or above. This has led traders to conclude that the marketplace is still not stable enough.
On the 7th of August, the price deviated above the $1,950 resistance area, a clear bearish sign that will remain unchanged until there’s a considerable trend to replace the area. Reclaiming this zone will signify a clear return to the bullish trend, while a breakdown means the market will lean towards a bearish movement.
All the figures resulting from the technical analysis indicate that weekly readings are mostly bearish. The main reason is the deviation, the red circle, which has decreased and typically leads to considerable downward movements. The buyers couldn’t sustain the growth, so the breakthrough past the $1,950 milestone was deemed illegitimate and ultimately reversed.
If the decrease continues, the long-term support line will shift to $1,450. This number has been in place since June 2022. However, it’s important to remember that a drop toward that level means a sizable decrease of roughly 20%.
However, not all parts of the blockchain are bearish. While the price action is stuck, weekly RSI levels remain bullish. This momentum indicator determines the oversold and overbought conditions of the market. It is a valuable tool for investors, many of whom incorporate it as an essential part of their transactional strategy. The RSI can be used as a reliable indicator in order to determine if it’s better to begin accumulating an asset or start selling under the current conditions.
Considering the upward trend and the fact that the reading remains above fifty, it’s safe to say that the bulls still have luck on their side. Even if there’s no decisive movement in any direction, and the trend remains neutral, it still has a bullish undercurrent, which ultimately matters much more.
Another reason investors are worried about the possibility of a bullish trend is that whale transactions have also become more commonplace. The beginning of August was particularly underwhelming for the market, as the price dropped below the $1,850 level, which was critical for its support. Against the backdrop of these complex changes, gigantic whale transactions also began springing up.
A whale investor moved no less than $36.4 million worth of Ether on the 2nd of August. Only two weeks before, the same user, who remains unknown, deposited $37 million. Together, the two amount to a staggering $74 million. The transactions were split into several separate ones. According to data, this may have exacerbated the bearish sentiment.
In just twenty-four hours after the transaction was confirmed, the price dropped from $1,870 to $1,830. Although it’s still too early to make accurate predictions for the end of August, most investors remain convinced that things will likely remain turbulent for the market until the end of summer.
Given the undoubtedly bearish tendency, it’s worth discussing what the price predictions indicate. Bears appear to be going for a rather drastic reversal at $1,750. This isn’t a surprise considering that the $1,850 level was lost, and it’s pretty likely for the values to continue dropping. Yet, the bearish trend is also experiencing difficulty getting under the $1,800 level. Around that area, approximately 2.94 million addresses have purchased 5.78 million Ethereum coins for an average price of $1,804. It’s quite challenging to break through that psychological barrier.
However, if it turns out that the support cannot hold steady, the bears might attempt to destabilize it. If the whales get into staking again, there will likely be a rebound towards the $1,900 level. Even so, the 5.23 million holders that bought 10.77 million coins at $1,864 will prove to be a considerable force. A lot of the future solely depends on whether the bulls can overturn the resistance levels or not.
Since Ethereum was introduced on the market, there has been discussion of whether or not it will manage to outperform Bitcoin and remove it from its throne. So far, this hasn’t happened, but many remain optimistic that it is only a matter of time until this prediction becomes a reality. The ETH/USD price chart remains bullish, but the ETH/BTC one records a more bullish outlook.
There are several reasons for this. The first one is that the price has been consistently traded on a descending price pattern since September 2022. Since this is historically associated with bullish patterns, breakouts are significantly more likely.
There’s also been a reclaim at the 0.618 Fib retracement level after a previous fall. This coincided with an increase in the support line. Any deviation below the Fib level is taken to represent a bullish tendency. Lastly, the weekly RSI has generated divergence, an event that allows the momentum to increase in conjunction with a price descent.
While the market has been steadily recovering over the past months, there’s still more work to be done before the previous levels are regained. In the meantime, investors must remain cautious to protect their assets.